Chapter 3 Extension

3.1 Moderating the effect by country: the influence of austerity

As outlined by Jeannet (2018, 6), economic factors might influence the association between being retired and the attitude towards immigration. In particular, austerity measures, as enforced after the Euro-Crisis in various EU member states, might moderate the association between retirement and the attitude towards immigration. Austerity measures go along with pension cuts, lower wages and shrunk welfare states. This could lead to higher competition in the labor market and thereby have a moderating effect on the association between labor market competition and the attitude towards immigration. To assess this potential effect, I build a statistical model which uses the country variable as a moderator of the association between retirement and the attitude towards immigration. By comparing Spain and Portugal as two countries (see Perez and Matsaganis (2018, 192)), where austerity measures were implemented to Northern-, and Central-European countries, where austerity measures were not implemented, a first indicator for a difference between the two groups can be identified.
Directed Acyclical Graph for the two moderation models

Figure 3.1: Directed Acyclical Graph for the two moderation models

Firstly, the regression output below for the three outcome variables show a reverse effect for Portugal and Spain compared to the rest of the countries. Being retired on average increases the perception that immigration creates jobs by .46 (significant at the .05 level) in Portugal and by .23 (significant at the .1 level) for Spain on a scale from 0 to 10. Being retired on average increases the perception that immigration creates jobs by .61 in Portugal and by .27 in Spain on a Scale from 0 to 10. These effects are not significant. Being retired on average decreases the perception that immigration puts in more jobs by -.32 in Portugal and increases the perception by .57 in Spain on a scale from 0 to 10. Those effects are not significant either.
Table 3.1: Accumulated effects per country
Country Economy Jobs Taxes.and.Services
Austria -0,895908* 0.206606 -0,325906
Belgium 0,161745* -0.303896 -0,231181
Dennmark -0,253997 0.120927 -0,027896
Finland -0,215704 -0.062116 0,143372
France -0,537427 -0.536226 -0,559469
Germany -0,0518* -0.062942 -0,193864
Ireland -0,261491 0.162328 0,822104**
Netherlands 0,43583** 0.227705 -0,006322
Norway -0,236883 -0.006707 0,033519
Portugal 0,46901** 0.612596 -0,318325
Spain 0,227779* 0.271073 0,575255
Sweden 0,695344*** 0.377887 0,347663
Switzerland -0,343478 -0.086776 -0,408697
United Kingdom 0,011656* -0.135252 0,014154
Note:
Coefficients are calculated from the corresponding instrumental variable regression outputs.
Overall, there seems to be a difference in the association between retirement status and the attitude towards immigration in countries which implemented austerity measures compared to the rest of the countries. This follows the intuition outlined in the first paragraph: the labor market competition hypothesis rather holds in countries, were austerity measures were implemented and therefore more competition in the labor market persists. The regression outputs show, that being retired increases the probability to perceive immigration as positive. However, the effects are not persistently significant across the three outcome variables. Furthermore, in case of the last outcome variable, the effect for Portugal is negative. Therefore, a difference can be observed, but is not significant across all outcome variables.
The table below shows the regression output used to calculate the effects in table 3.1. This model also includes the control variables used in the previous models.
Moderation model by countries
  Economy Jobs Taxes & Services
Austria/ Baseline -0.896 *
(0.370) 		0.207
(0.362) 		-0.326
(0.358)
Retired * Belgium 1.058 *
(0.457) 		-0.511
(0.443) 		0.095
(0.448)
Retired * Denmark 0.642
(0.492) 		-0.086
(0.450) 		0.298
(0.464)
Retired * Finland 0.680
(0.426) 		-0.269
(0.410) 		0.469
(0.419)
Retired * France 0.358
(0.444) 		-0.743
(0.434) 		-0.234
(0.437)
Retired * Germany 0.844 *
(0.411) 		-0.270
(0.402) 		0.132
(0.397)
Retired * Ireland 0.634
(0.497) 		-0.044
(0.471) 		1.148 *
(0.476)
Retired * Netherlands 1.332 **
(0.426) 		0.021
(0.410) 		0.320
(0.415)
Retired * Norway 0.659
(0.462) 		-0.213
(0.445) 		0.359
(0.451)
Retired * Portugal 1.365 *
(0.574) 		0.406
(0.556) 		0.008
(0.535)
Retired * Spain 1.124 *
(0.539) 		0.064
(0.571) 		0.901
(0.513)
Retired * Sweden 1.591 **
(0.500) 		0.171
(0.440) 		0.674
(0.470)
Retired * Switzerland 0.552
(0.447) 		-0.293
(0.438) 		-0.083
(0.460)
Retired * United Kingdom 0.908 *
(0.460) 		-0.342
(0.447) 		0.340
(0.449)
Observations 3616 3607 3598
R2 / R2 adjusted 0.168 / 0.157 0.131 / 0.120 0.104 / 0.093
  • p<0.05   ** p<0.01   *** p<0.001

3.2 Exposure to ethnic minorities and the attitude towards immigration

Beyond mere economic explanations (ergo-, and socio-tropic), the exposure towards ethnic minorities might have a substantial effect on the association between being retired and the attitude towards immigration (see Kehrberg (2007)). The European Social Survey (2014) includes a variable that queries, whether people of minority race/ ethnic group currently live in the are of the respondent. The relevant categories for this analysis are: “Almost nobody minority race/ ethnic group”, “Some minority race/ ethnic group”, and “Many minority race/ ethnic group”. I use this variable as an indicator for exposure to ethnic minorities. Being retired on average:
  • increases the perception that immigration is good for the economy by .014 for people who are exposed to almost no ethnic minorities,
  • decreases the perception that immigration is good for the economy by .17 for people who are exposed to some ethnic minorities, and
  • decreases the perception that immigration is good for the economy by .12 for people who are exposed to many ethnic minorities.
However, the effects are not significant. The effects for the jobs and taxes outcome variables are also not significant for all categories of the moderator variable.
Table 3.2: Accumulated effects per exposure category
Exposure Economy Jobs Taxes
1 Almost nobody 0.014295 -0.2076727 0.014295
2 Some -0.183881 0.1495856 -0.183881
3 Many -0.144058 0.0245160 -0.144058
Note:
Coefficients are calculated from the corresponding instrumental variable regression outputs.

In conclusion, I can oberserve variation in the association between the retirement status and the attitude towards immigration moderating for different countries and their austerity status as well as the exposure to ethnic minorities. However, the sub-effects are only partially significant. The moderation models provide a more differentiated view on the association in question and can - on a more granular level - confirm the hypothesis, that the labor market hypothesis in the given sample cannot be confirmed. The moderation do however show, that the effect substantially varies between mixed market economies, which implemented austerity measures and coordinated market economies in Central Europe. This difference challenges the ahistorical, apolitical and micro-sociological perspective by Jeannet (2018). Firstly, attitudes towards migration are a result of the colonial history of a state and are therefore not ahisorical. The data confirms the notion that individuals from former colonizer nations tend to have a substantial shift in attitude towards immigration after retirement compared to other states (see United Kingdom, Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain). Secondly, the association between retirement status and the attitude towards immigration is by definition a political matter and cannot be confined to the economic status of an individual or the entire economy of a country. Rather, the values of an individual might substantially contribute towards its attitude towards immigration. Therefore, future research shall assess, whether economic or value-driven factors are key determinants of attitudes towards immigration.

Moderation model by exposure to ethnic minorities
  Economy Jobs Taxes & Services
Almost nobody/ Baseline -0.184
(0.147) 		-0.208
(0.141) 		0.014
(0.141)
Some -0.114
(0.166) 		0.150
(0.157) 		-0.184
(0.160)
Many 0.299
(0.299) 		0.025
(0.290) 		-0.144
(0.284)
Observations 3616 3607 3598
R2 / R2 adjusted 0.132 / 0.126 0.074 / 0.068 0.075 / 0.068
  • p<0.05   ** p<0.01   *** p<0.001

RMD files
In case you want to reproduce the analysis, the code can be downloaded here: https://frp.vwinterhager.de/rmd_files/RMD_Files.zip

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